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Precise Shooter forecast for 2013 gun regulation

There is a whole bunch of fear mongering that is going on on gunternet, so we decided to throw our hat into the fray.

Here is our predictions for gun legislation that may (or may not) come in 2013.

Of course, if we were Faux "News" (R, TM, TM, TM, C), we would say that we have been informed by "confidential sources". But we're not, so we are saying it like it is - we pulled it out of our butt.

Based on facts on the ground, the speculations will change. We will time-stamp the changes, and keep the original text in the change log, to see what predictions actually came to pass, and which did not.

Predictions, 1/11/2013

  • Restrictions on manufacture, transfer, and/or ownership of semi-automatic rifles: extremely unlikely. Probability less than 1%.
  • Restrictions on manufacture, transfer, and/or ownership of semi-automatic pistols: extremely unlikely. Probability less than 1%.
  • Restrictions on manufacture, transfer, and/or ownership of semi-automatic "assault" rifles (defined as rifles that have military features a la AWBv1, with potential expansions and modifications): very unlikely. Probability no more than 5%.
  • Restrictions on manufacture, transfer, and/or ownership of high capacity magazines: may happen. Probability more than 30%.
  • Restrictions on private transfers of firearms (private purchases, gun shows, etc): likely. Probability about 50%.

Reasoning, 1/11/2013

(Caution: no black helicopters ahead)

Politicians in US pass two kinds of legislation. They pass what people with money care about, because elections cost a lot of money, and pleasing wealthy donors is about the only way to get it.

IFF (if and only if) there is no money in the issue (and the firearms industry is tiny - anyone who went to both the SHOT Show and COMDEX can attest to that), they do what population wants, because getting votes (in addition to the money) is still required to get elected.

Politicians who neglect either money or votes, don't stay in politics for very long.

There is no money in "anti-gun", so we must rely on popular support for various measures concerning firearms.

Currently there is no popular support for restricting firearms themselves. Public is either already somewhat educated on the technical details, or can easily be made so. There is popular support for restricting the sizes of the magazines. There is DEFINITELY a lot of popular support for keeping guns away from people who should not have them. Therefore, predictions above.

Reference: Slate: Goon Control