King County Elections 2015 - a Gun Owner's Guide

King County 2015 election season was supposed to be a sleepy affair. Held in an off year for national politics, with no big money, big media attention, and your typical red meat issues, this was supposed to be very boring.

Then, suddenly, Tim Burgess came up with his ill-conceived gun tax law proposal, and, at least for the gun owners, everything changed.

This is not just Seattle's internal business, of course. The proposed tax law would double the price of the most popular sporting ammunition, dramatically increase the prices on guns, and run the very few Seattle gun stores out of town. This is the most radical gun regulation in the country and, if enacted, would serve as a blueprint for other places in the state and in the country.

We cannot let this pass.

But what can we, the gun owners, do? It has been demonstrated time and again that the general public - especially in big cities, where people are generally very ignorant of guns - can be sold almost anything based on the age-old "won't someone please think of the children" tactic.

Well, as it happens, YOU can do quite a bit.

Don't give up!

Rule number one: don't despair. The probability of this actually becoming a law is very, very low. WA state has a preemption law (you can read about it here) which prohibits municipalities from enacting additional restrictions on guns beyond what exists at the state level. Though Burgess is trying to frame it as a tax issue, given the realities of the money stream, it is extremely easy to show that the city will lose money, not make it, because of this tax. And given that it's not about the money, it HAS to be about the gun regulation - which is illegal.

But thought it is a clear-cut legal case, we should still make this legislation dead on arrival. The politicians need to be shown very clearly that the electorate will not tolerate this behavior. Seattle has a long history of engineering accomplishment - be it Boeing planes, Microsoft desktop software, or Amazon cloud - and we will have political leaders who manage the city based on data, not bullshit!

Elections are just around the corner

...which brings me to my main point - yes, we can! As I mentioned before, municipal elections are a boring affair, and electorate turnout is typically very, very low. Burgess, for example, was reelected by 80% of the vote last time around - but that's by just 25% of the people who showed up! Jean Golden won by 1% of the vote - from the same tiny pool.

On the other hand, roughly 30% of Americans own guns, and even if Seattle is far behind, it is quite likely that the number of gun owners in the city is at least comparable to the number of people who show up for the elections.

So - (a) show up, and (b) get your friends, family, and your social network to show up. We will show the bastards!

Here is the Election Calendar

The primaries are on August 4th, 2015. If you are not registered to vote - this week is the last opportunity to do it, and you have to do it in person - by July 27th. Here is how you do it.

You should also get your friends to register as well. Have a lunch time trip to the office, and get your work mates to tag along!

Here are the current races involving current council members who are listed as sponsors of the proposal. You may want to call the incumbent and ask them about their position on this law. Then call the challengers and ask them - and offer assistance (yard signs, volunteering) to the ones that do not support this horrible law. If you let me know (sergey - at - precisehooter - dot - com) what you found out about candidate's positions, I will update the page with the positions of various candidates.

Candidates will also benefit from knowing that there is a sizable number of people who care about this issue.

Council Position #8

Incumbent: Tim Burgess

Position on the gun tax proposal: Author.

Challengers:

• John Roderick. 206 605-0122. Position: criticized the law. Probably the most likely challenger. I support his candidacy.
• Jon Grant. 206 353-9740. Position: unknown.
• John Presak. 206 291-5411. Position: unknown, did not respond to clarification request.

Council Position #7

Incumbent: Sally Bagshaw

Position: listed as a co-sponsor.

Challengers:

• Gus Hartmann. 425 985-0001. Position: unknown, however, this is a Google SRE and should have no sympathy for numbers pulled out of one's butt. This is my candidate this election season. Give this guy some $$$!
• Deborah Zech-Artis. 206 271-8086. Position: unknown.

Council Position #6

Incumbent: Mike O'Brien

Position: listed as a co-sponsor.

Challengers:

• Stan Shaufler. 253 514-0985. Position: unknown.
• Jon Lisbin. 206 794-5969. Position: unknown.
• Catherine Weatbrook. 206 372-2033. Position: unknown.

Council Position #5

Incumbent: Tom Rasmussen (not running for reelection)

Position: listed as a co-sponsor.

Challengers:

• Sandy Brown - rabid anti-gun advocate (and really, I don't thrown this term around lightly), one of the authors of I-594, and enthusiastic supporter of the gun tax law. This person SHOULD NOT be elected!
• Halei Watkins. 206 866-4368. Position: unknown.
• Debora Juarez. 425 442-4943. Position: unknown.
• Debadutta Dash. 206 330-8512. Position: unknown.
• Kris Lethin. 206 686-5155. Position: unknown. Most money among challengers to Sandy Brown - we should probably invest here!
• David Toledo. 206 641-0859. Position: unknown.
• Mercedes Elizalde. 206 588-6658. Position: unknown.
• Hugh Russell. No contact information. Probably not a very likely candidate. Position: unknown.

Council Position #4

Incumbent: Jean Godden

Position: listed as a co-sponsor.

This council member is 83 years old, and won by a tiniest margin the last time. This should be a slam dunk.

Challengers:

• Rob Johnson. No phone. Position: unknown. Most campaign money, however.
• Michael Maddux. 206 753-9449. Position: unknown.
• Tony Provine. 206 683-3728. Position: unknown.

Council Position #3

Incumbent: Kshama Sawant

Position: listed as a co-sponsor.

Challengers:

• Lee Carter. 206 494-5731. Position: unknown.
• Pamela Banks. 206 682-7328. Position: unknown. Has similar amount of money to Sawant, probably the most likely challenger. Invest here?
• Abel Pacheco. 425 954-6778. Position: unknown.
• Morgan Beach. 425 298-3073. Position: unknown.
• Rod Hearne. 206 486-0085. Position: unknown.

Council Position #2

Incumbent: Bruce Harrell

Position: listed as a co-sponsor.

Challengers:

• Josh Farris. 206 429-8916. Position: unknown.
• Tammy Morales. 206 384-0810. Position: unknown.

(Some information about who raised how much).

It is telling, by the way, that no one - NO ONE - except Sandy Brown mentions firearms in their submissions for the voter's pamphlet. For most people firearms regulation in Seattle is not a priority. But for us it is - and we will have our voice heard.

Help needed: call candidates to clarify their positions and let me know (sergey - at - preciseshooter - dot - com) what they are. Donate to the most likely challengers who are either against or undecided. $20 per candidate times 10000 gun owners will upset all of these races.

But what if I don't live in the city?

You can help us organize friends and family who do! You can call to learn about the candidate's positions on the law. You can contribute - there is not a requirement that a candidate be a resident of Seattle to contribute to a candidate for Seattle City Council. State of Washington has over a million of gun owners. Tim Burgess has $225000 in campaign money. A $20 contribution from just 1% (!) of Washington State gun owners will blow him out of the water!

So - nothing is lost - but winning requires action. Don't complain about losing your gun rights on the Internet - talk to your friends, politicians, and contribute, contribute, contribute! A very large number of very small donations will make a huge difference.

How to talk about this law to your friends and family

Winning gun enthusiasts is easy - but not enough. Many people do not care about guns one way or the other - most do, however, care about good governance, and they should be on our side.

To win them over, point out that...

• Mathematically, the projections behind this law are impossible - Seattle will lose money when gun dealers are ran out of town, not win it. If Tim Burgess were to actually be interested in funding anti-violence programs, he would not be doing it in a way which destroys the businesses that he would expect to tax. With only 2 dedicated gun stores in Seattle (one of which is very, very small), and over ten just outside the city, there is simply no way that the current businesses can survive if this tax were to pass.
• One of the stores that would move is Outdoor Emporium. They are not a dedicated gun store, but they are one of the two biggest gun counters in the city - and they are also a very big seller of fishing and outdoors equipment. When they move, Seattle will lose a $1M in sales tax revenue.
• If this were to pass, Seattle will face expensive legislation, which it will lose because of the state preemption on firearms legislation. Seattle have already lost a very similar lawsuit just recently. All this money - hundreds of thousands of dollars - are not invested into programs which would ACTUALLY benefit city residents.
• This law penalizes sports shooters the most - and is absolutely inconsequential to the lawbreakers. In the last 6 months about quarter million rounds of ammunition was sold in Seattle, of which about 250 rounds were fired illegally - 0.1%. So $12.50 would be paid in taxes by the criminals, and a thousand times as much by sportsmen.
• Seattle is NOT experiencing a violence crisis - it has in fact one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the nation. There were only 10 cases of homicide in the city in the first months of 2015 - 2 less than during the same period last years. Your probability to be killed by almost everything else - cancer, heart disease, drunk drivers, medical errors - is VASTLY higher than the probability of being killed by a gun.

(Seattle crime stats, 7/8/2015)

In other words - regardless of what someone thinks about guns, we have a governance crisis in Seattle. Our representatives make decision based on emotions, not data. We need to fix this.